Uncertainty, futures, and deterritorialisation: Why the next chapter of place branding requires embracing the unpredictable

By Caio Esteves, Managing Partner, N/LFIf place branding was initially created to reinforce and, in different ways, stabilise a place with consistent narratives capable of offering predictability about its identity, today that stability is the exception; predictability is a myth we insist on clinging to. We live in a world where borders are dissolving, realities are changing rapidly, and crises are no longer episodes but have become a permanent condition.In Lugares Futuros (ESTEVES, 2024), I argue that the role of place branding is no longer just to “tell who we are,” but rather to create value in contexts of high instability. Identity, perception, behaviour - everything can change quickly, as we have recently learned the hard way. The sector now needs new approaches and, above all, a new mindset to deal with contemporary challenges.The arrival of a new, uncertain, and fast-paced paradigm requires strategic shifts. In this article, I cite three:1. Use uncertainty as an asset2. Evolve from ‘Sense of Place’ to ‘Sense of Futures’3. Recognise that place branding already lives beyond physical territoryUncertainty as an assetThe traditional playbook for the sector was based on reducing risk and delivering predictability. But if zero risk does not exist, the obsession with eliminating it is paralysing. Uncertainty, in turn, is inevitable; treating it as an enemy is naive and anachronistic behaviour that wastes its transformative potential.In the logic of the anti-fragile city, which I developed from Nassim Taleb (2014) and adapted to the urban context in Cidade Antifrágil (ESTEVES, 2021) and Lugares Futuros (2024), the goal is not to resist shock, but to strengthen oneself from it. This requires at least three concrete changes:1. Adaptive strategies: flexible models that work in multiple possible scenarios2. Monitoring weak signals: anticipating transformations through incipient changes3. Rapid and iterative responses: leaders trained to act quickly in the face of the unexpectedThe competitive advantage of the future will not belong to those who predict what will happen, but to those who adapt most quickly to what no one predicted.In practice, embracing uncertainty means that the identity of a place must be both strong and relational, ensuring authenticity and uniqueness. However it must also be malleable enough to accommodate radical changes without losing coherence, something that cannot be achieved with brand manuals or advertising campaigns.From ‘Sense of Place’ to ‘Sense of Futures’Sense of Place, a concept widely discussed by Edward Relph, represents the emotional and identity connection between people and place. However, at the current pace of transformation, the present is not enough to sustain this identity.In response, I propose the concept of Sense of Futures: the ability to project identities toward multiple possible futures, without imprisoning them in a single scenario, but strong enough to navigate unpredictability with authenticity. A place should not be defined only by what it is, but by what it can become.This transition implies:1. Mapping drivers of change (environmental, social, technological, cultural, etc.)2. Exploring future scenarios and testing narratives in diverse contexts3. Including the community in the process of imagining futures, strengthening belonging and legitimacy.Authenticity is not a fixed point; it is a coherent trajectory that allows for transformation without losing essence. Sense of Futures requires abandoning the attempt to shield the brand from change and instead preparing it to coexist with multiple versions of itself.Beyond physical territoryIf territory is only one layer of place, linking the place brand to geography is limiting. We are experiencing an irreversible process of symbolic deterritorialisation. A place can exist both on digital platforms and in cultural networks.This expansion of geographical presence to symbolic, narrative, digital, and affective presence creates new arenas of dispute:Digital cultural diplomacyPlaces compete for relevance on platforms such as TikTok or Instagram. They no longer export products, but shared imaginaries and emotions, forming symbolic coalitions with their peers, rather than just trying to convince “others.”Virtual communities of belongingThe identity of place is also sustained by affective networks and digital diasporas, which maintain symbolic links even without physical presence.Algorithmic infrastructures as new urban soilThe dispute over control of data, servers, and digital protocols reveals a new layer of territorial sovereignty: the symbolic territory of invisible infrastructures, or a kind of cloud state.Simulation and digital twinsCities create digital twins, immersive experiences, and their own metaverses, expanding their presence beyond physical space. This requires a new repertoire of symbolic territorial management.Narratives of futures as an assetCities that position themselves as laboratories of futures also begin to compete for global imagination. The place brand becomes speculative: the right to imagine tomorrow is disputed.Integrating the three lensesUncertainty, futures, and deterritorialisation are not isolated themes, but intertwined layers. Those who master one tend to operate better in the others. The integration of these lenses creates an anti-fragile place brand, capable of adapting, evolving, and influencing contexts beyond its geography.The main obstacle is perhaps not technical, but cultural. The success of a place brand is still measured with linear metrics (number of visitors…), which ignore symbolic presence and adaptability.The necessary leap is this: to measure a place's ability to sustain diverse narratives, inhabit multiple futures, and maintain relevance in unstable environments, whether physical or not.Whether in the council of a small town or in the strategy of a nation, the question is no longer “What is our place in the world?”, but:“What is the world that our place can create?”Answering this requires leaving the comfort zone, working with uncertainty as raw material, and accepting that, in the 21st century, place is as finite as the futures it proposes to imagine. References ESTEVES, Caio. Cidade Antifrágil: Uma Perspectiva para os Lugares num future de incertezas. Santos. Realejo Edições, 2021ESTEVES, Caio. Lugares Futuros: Place branding, placemaking e strategic foresight para fortalecer lugares, Cidades e países. São Paulo. Homo Urbanus, 2024.RELPH, Edward. Place and Placelessness. London: Pion Limited, 1976.TALEB, Nassim Nicholas. Antifrágil: Coisa que se beneficiam do caos. Rio de Janeiro. Best Business, 2014.

Uncertainty, futures, and deterritorialisation: Why the next chapter of place branding requires embracing the unpredictable

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