By Caroline Bremner, Data Insights Specialist,  The Travel Foundation

Rebalancing tourism has never been more urgent as climate risks and inequalities intensify. Traveller trends can offer practical levers for transformation. By aligning regenerative business models with shifting behaviours, destinations can spread tourism's benefits more fairly, retain more value locally, and strengthen climate resilience where it matters most.

Reframing destination success with traveller tribes

To transition to sustainable business models, destinations are targeting traveller segments who help optimise tourism benefits for local communities.

From Japan to Cabo Verde, adventure travel is being adopted by DMOs, where the sector is forecast to reach US$2 trillion by 2032. The most powerful lever of adventure travel is that almost 80% of spending stays locally by using local tour operators, reducing the effects of leakage. This contrasts sharply with mass-market business models, where leakage can be as high as 50% to 80% in emerging markets. Adventure travellers enjoy consuming local products and services. They also stay longer and travel further afield, which maximises wealth distribution.

Slowly but surely, mass-market behaviours are catching up with frontrunners like adventure and eco-travellers. According to Skyscanner, 33% of travellers are looking to avoid over-touristed areas in favour of the quieter and less visited, while Booking.com shows that 43% of travellers are already seeking to connect more with nature. One of the buzz trends for 2026 was ‘hushpitality’, indicating the shift to quieter, off the beaten path locations. Carefully managed, consumer trends such as this can drive greater equity in tourism, spreading the value of tourism to less-visited locations. For example, visitors are looking beyond Dubrovnik to destinations like Rovinj, Pula, and other beautiful locations on the Adriatic coast, away from the crowds, which the Croatian National Tourism Board is enabling with its focus on the country’s diverse top 10 regions.

Young people especially show a strong propensity to travel to new and emerging destinations – behaviour that, with good destination planning, helps to distribute wealth more fairly. They also show a strong interest in nature and rural areas, helpful for visitor spread and revenue dispersal.

“69% of Gen Z and 66% of Millennials say they want to visit places they’ve never been before. 

84% say they would rather visit a rural area or smaller city than a major hub.” Source: Kayak.com

Climate change shaping traveller behaviour

Virtuoso data is revealing in how climate change is impacting traveller behaviours at the high end:

• 45% of agency respondents said climate change is causing their clients to travel differently
• 76% said that their clients are traveling during shoulder season or off-peak times
• 75% said their clients are choosing destinations with moderate, less extreme weather conditions
  
  

Coolcations – indicator of shifting demand patterns

A top trend for 2025 was coolcations, illustrating just how much climate change is already impacting travel behaviours. The EU Joint Research Centre’s research predicts a decline of 10% for tourism demand in Southern Europe in peak season compared to a 5% increase in Northern and Central Europe by 2100 as the South experiences extreme heat. Scandinavian and Baltic destinations are benefiting from increased interest over the summer. While destinations that depend on winter sports such as Switzerland and Austria have invested heavily in repositioning as adventure destinations during the summer, extending the season year-round. 

Business models delivering on climate and equity goals

There are destinations and travel brands pushing the envelope for sustainable transformation. Evaneos, a French B-Corp, reported that 85% of money remains in destination through working with local travel partners. 50% of businesses they work with are women-owned, and 58% of their agency partners are seeking ESG certification. However, this is not at the expense of customer enjoyment, where 92% of travellers are satisfied with their trip.

Community tourism networks and businesses are one of the best ways to enable sustainable transformation for equitable travel and climate justice. With tourism in the hands of local communities and Indigenous peoples, equity is more easily achieved, and travellers gain truly authentic and empowering experiences. The Indigenous tourism sector, led by Canada and Australia, is reported to be valued at US$67 billion by the World Travel and Tourism Council. The interest in engaging with local and Indigenous communities is also supported by traveller trends, where 70% of families seek experiences that connect them to local traditions.

Other strategies deployed include reviewing the source market mix to diversify demand and ensure the right balance between domestic, intra-regional and international visitors through a climate lens. In Amsterdam, the value of an international visitor is determined not just by their flight emissions, but whether they are open to using public transport, giving a holistic view of cost benefits.

Building climate resilience where it matters most

Climate change and its effects are intensifying with significant damages inflicted. According to Germanwatch’s Climate Risk Index, more than 832,000 lives were lost and direct economic losses of almost US$4.5 trillion were recorded, caused by more than 9,700 extreme weather events over 1995 to 2024. The most at risk are often the poorest of countries.

The case for integrating climate adaptation and mitigation into destination management plans is vital. However, the Tourism Panel for Climate Change stocktake report revealed major concerns: 88% of climate experts agreed that there was insufficient integration of emission reductions into destination management plans, and 96% agreed that tourism policy does not support achieving national emission reduction targets. It is critical that tourism aligns more with climate action goals, as the current disconnect is setting destinations up for failure. The Travel Foundation’s Destination Climate Champions free, online training programme helps destinations to create an effective plan and prioritise actions.

Rewarding regenerative approaches

Copenhagen has outstanding examples of how to blend climate action with community needs such as Copenhill (an energy plant cum ski slope). Whilst CopenPay by Visit Copenhagen incentivises visitors during peak season to have a positive impact, rewarding sustainable and regenerative actions with free experiences. Actions include encouraging no-fly travel such as train, using public transport, and picking up litter whilst kayaking.

The Canary Islands in Spain has launched a regenerative tourism programme that covers three pillars: regulatory framework transformation, redesigning public space and a climate action plan. The latter includes El Hierro, aiming to be the first net-zero island through renewable energy and electric vehicles, where over half of its energy is already sourced from wind and water.

Time for action

One way to speed up climate action and rebalance tourism is by signing the Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action in Tourism. Failure to decarbonise, adopt equitable business practices, and act with social licence may lead to short-term gains but spell long-term disaster.

For more information, please visit The Travel Foundation as a founding partner of the Glasgow Declaration. You can connect directly with Caroline Bremner at caroline.bremner@thetravelfoundation.org.uk.